Control Risks

Andreas Carleton-Smith, regional director for the Middle East and Gala Riani, Head of Analysis for Middle East and North Africa discuss the current situation in Iraq.

Over the coming fortnight, tensions between China and Vietnam over disputed waters in the South China Sea will keep the region on edge; a new Palestinian unity government makes waves in the Middle East; and all eyes turn to Brazil, where the stage could be set for more than just football.

Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act came into effect on June 2. Under this legislation, US-listed companies will need to submit “conflict mineral reports” to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which assess whether the sourcing of the tin, tantalum, tungsten or gold used in their products may have helped fund Congolese fighting groups. In this podcast, Christoph Wille, Control Risks' political and security risk analyst for Congo (DRC) considers the potential implications of the new legislation.

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In the coming weeks: Colombia holds a presidential election, which Oliver Wack says could help bring an end to that country’s decades-old insurgency; Angola begins bidding for onshore oil blocks, opening a new chapter in the country’s energy industry ; and the 70th anniversary of D-Day will bring Western leaders face-to-face with Vladimir Putin, providing a rich geopolitical subplot.

While most attention is being drawn on the European elections, Charles Hecker, Global Research Director,  and David Lea, Senior Analyst for Western Europe look at two other countries which are voting both in those elections and also domestically this week. Greece and Belgium.

The more conciliatory tone adopted by Iranian President Hassan Rowhani and progress on the P5+1 talks in Geneva has raised the prospects of a lifting of the punitive sanctions which have been imposed on Iran since 2006. While those negotiations remain at an early stage, there is growing interest amongst multinational organisations about the opportunities that might arise should Iran return to the international fold.

Andreas Carleton-Smith, regional director for the Middle East and North Africa and Henry Smith, senior consultant in the Global Risk Analysis business have made a recent research trip to Iran to assess the prospects for progress. They discuss the mood on the ground and outline the key opportunities and risks should the sanctions be removed.

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Headlines in the coming weeks will highlight the challenges of quelling violence in northeast Nigeria. Elsewhere, India begins to form a government after its marathon election and the global anti-corruption movement gives power to the people.

In the latest podcast from Control Risks, South Africa analyst, Paul Gabriel, discusses the potential outcomes of the upcoming General Election in South Africa at which voters will elect a new National Assembly and new provincial legislatures. The ANC and its tripartite partners aren't expected to lose much ground on the 65% of the vote they secured in 2009, but could these elections have greater significance?

About the Presenter

Paul Gabriel provides political, operational and security risk analysis on South Africa and the East Africa region to a broad range of clients through tailored reports and Control Risks’ subscription services, Country Risk Forecast and PRIME. Paul frequently travels to the region for client and research purposes.

Prior to joining Control Risks, Paul was an analyst with risk consultancy Maplecroft. He worked on political and security risks in sub-Saharan Africa for a number of global corporations, international organisations and government departments. Paul also held a position with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre monitoring the compliance of countries in sub-Saharan Africa with the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme.

Paul gained an MA in International Conflict Studies from King’s College London, where his work focused on the possibilities of using open source intelligence in the context of conflict early warning and response in sub-Saharan Africa. He holds a first-class Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg.

In the latest instalment of Control Risks RiskMap podcast, Charles Hecker and Chris Torrens discuss President Obama's current tour of Asia. They are joined by Senior West Africa analyst, Thomas Hansen, who speaks about the recent significant revaluation of the Nigerian economy and talk to lead Egypt analyst, Lucy Jones, who considers the implications of the impending court case against Muslim Brotherhood followers accused of attacking a police station last summer.

About the presenters

Charles Hecker, Global Research Director

As Global Research Director, Charles Hecker is responsible for shaping Control Risks’ thought leadership on geopolitics, global security, macroeconomics and political risk methodology issues, and their impact on international business. Charles speaks at industry, policy and academic conferences and represents the company’s work to the international media. Charles also contributes to the content and production of Control Risks’ research services and designs and delivers complex, multi-jurisdiction political and security risk consultancy.

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In the latest instalment of Control Risks RiskMap podcast, Charles Hecker and Mike Moran consider the implications of the German trade delegation visit to Iran. They also discuss the possibility of an uptick in sectarian violence in Nortern Ireland and are joined by guest analyst Simon Whistler who looks at the latest state of play in Venezuela.

About the presenters

Charles Hecker, Global Research Director

As Global Research Director, Charles Hecker is responsible for shaping Control Risks’ thought leadership on geopolitics, global security, macroeconomics and political risk methodology issues, and their impact on international business. Charles speaks at industry, policy and academic conferences and represents the company’s work to the international media. Charles also contributes to the content and production of Control Risks’ research services and designs and delivers complex, multi-jurisdiction political and security risk consultancy.

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In this podcast, Stephen Norris, Control Risks' political and security risk analyst for Thailand considers the likely next developments in the ongoing political turmoil which has stalled investment in the country.

Thailand’s Constitutional Court is due to make its ruling shortly on the petition filed by anti-government senators calling for the removal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra following accusations that she violated the constitution by appointing a member of the extended Shinawatra family to a vital security post. At the same time, anti-government protestors are returning to the streets after taking time out for Thai new year and whilst this political impasse goes on, separatist insurgency groups have stepped up their militant activity in the troubled South of the country.

In the latest podcast from Control Risks, Dwight Dyer, political and security risk analyst for Mexico comments on the country’s Oil and Gas reforms and their wider implications, assessing opportunities and risks in the sector for multinational corporations.

About Dwight Dyer

Dwight is a political scientist with broad experience in Mexico and Latin America. As a former Director of Intelligence Analysis for the Mexican National Security Agency, he has expert knowledge of the political, social and security risks in the country. At Control Risks he advises clients on how to manage and mitigate the risks inherent in Mexico, with specialist expertise in the mining and oil and gas sectors.
 

As Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines, Control Risks’ Global Issues analyst, Jonathan Wood, takes a look at the wider geo-political issues surrounding the crisis.

About the presenter

Jonathan Wood leads Control Risks’ strategic analysis practice, which provides analysis and consultancy on global business risks. Jonathan’s substantive portfolio encompasses geopolitical risk, energy security, climate change, business integrity issues, and security, social and reputational risks.

Prior to joining Control Risks, Jonathan evaluated multilateral development bank procurement policies for consultancy Development Finance International, based outside of Washington, DC, and worked on defence sector integrity issues at anti-corruption organisation Transparency International UK in London. Jonathan also previously worked as a domestic policy analyst for leading US food security organisations based in Washington, DC, and Boston.

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In the coming weeks: A deal between Ukraine and the IMF, the prospects for European shale gas, Afghanistan to select Karzai's successor, and elections in Indonesia and India.

Last week saw the removal of Ali Zeidan as Libya's prime minister following a no confidence vote. In his 18 months as leader, the country has seen little progress made on implementing a new constitution, and an uptick in militancy. In this podcast, Geoffrey Howard, Control Risks lead analyst for Libya discusses what the future might hold for the country and for investors.

About the speaker
Geoffrey Howard is Control Risks lead analyst for Libya. Geoffrey has a broad range of experience working in Libya and North Africa with previous roles with a leading Arab trade representative body as well as a senior instructor where he was managing training programmes and economic development consultancy projects for leading Libyan financial institutions in Tripoli.

Geoffrey has a BA in Arabic from the University of Exeter and a distinction for his MSc degree in State, Society and Development at the School of Oriental and African Studies.