Control Risks

Asia in Focus - US election 2024: the possible outcomes and global implications

In a busy election year, the most high-profile race in 2024 is undoubtedly the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as the two candidates once again vie for the Oval Office.

With six months until election day, how the rematch could unfold, and its global implications, are top-of-mind for many businesses. Organisations need to prepare for a range of compounding risks associated with the possible outcomes.

Angela Mancini, Partner, sits down with Daniel Rechtschaffen, our Washington DC-based political and regulatory risk Senior Analyst for North America, to discuss the forecast for 2024 US election, the policy priorities of the two candidates and the impact for Asia and broader markets.

Read the article, The business implications of a Biden-Trump rematch, for more of our thoughts on the US election. If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.

In Re: - Dispute Diaries: Is India a new hub for international disputes?

India is increasingly becoming a pivotal market in the corporate world, with disputes involving the country gaining greater international significance.

Join Control Risks experts Aakash Brahmachari and Michael Harrington for a discussion with Prateek Bagaria, Partner at Singularity Legal. They’ll explore the complexities of disputes involving India amidst an evolving geopolitical landscape and look at what this means for legal teams.

Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.

The Global Insight - The Ukraine war: how long-term is long-term?

The Ukraine war is receiving less attention now, but the implications continue to reverberate.

The Ukraine war will define a generation's understanding of European identity, the future of Russia's relationship with NATO, US engagement in Europe, and the cohesion of the Western alliance. It will also shape Russia's influence in the Global South and that of its allies, impacting businesses worldwide.

Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with two of Control Risks’ senior experts in geopolitics: Sorana Parvulescu, Partner and head of our geopolitical risk business in EMEA based in Dubai, and Jonathan Wood, a Principal Washington, DC.

Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.

Decrypt - Ukraine's evolving digital threat landscape

Over two years have passed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This has been a period marked by relentless battlefield activity, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and a complex and evolving digital threat landscape. As business looks to rebuild a country still defending itself from invasion, how can CISOs and security teams ensure their organisations remain secure?

In this episode, Nic Reys chats with Control Risks experts Stina Connor and Bota Iliyas about the current state of digital threats in Ukraine, the changing motivations of threat actors, and what to consider when operating in or entering a market sat at the nexus of geopolitical tensions. 

Find out more about what we're paying attention to in the digital risk space.

Dispute Diaries: Is there a route around Red Sea disputes?

On 6 March 2024, Houthi rebels in the Red Sea attacked a ship called True Confidence, killing three crew members. Up until this attack, the Houthis had managed to damage vessels, but this was the first time one of their attacks resulted in death. With the situation likely to continue and even escalate, the maritime community remains vulnerable.

Join Control Risks experts, Aakash Brahmachari, Cormac McGarry, and Dina Arakji for a conversation with Akshay Misra, Managing Associate at Penningtons, about disputes arising from the Red Sea crisis and what companies can do to better prepare themselves as events unfold in the region.

Read more of our thinking on disputes arising from the Red Sea crisis.

The Good Idea: Critical minerals, critical impacts

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the market size of key energy transition minerals has doubled over the past five years. The IEA predicts another doubling of demand for those same minerals by 2030. What are the environmental, social, and governance impacts of a ramped up critical minerals sector?

Join Maria Knapp, Yadaira Orsini, and Rob Bailes as they dissect how companies can best approach a sector that is evolving at a rapid pace, but which comes with significant risks, including pollution, poor working conditions, and increased regulation.

Explore our take the critical minerals sector here.

 

Asia In Focus - Indonesia elections 2024: predictable unpredictability

Indonesia will announce the official results of its presidential elections on March 20. Pro-business ex-defence minister Prabowo Subianto looks set to win the presidency outright, avoiding a run-off in June. 

Longtime followers of Indonesia will know Prabowo as an unpredictably belligerent general and the son-in-law of authoritarian President Suharto, who in the late 1990s was banned from the US and fired from the Indonesian army for allegations of human rights abuse. How did Prabowo get elected and what should businesses expect from him? 

Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Achmad Sukarsono, Associate Director and Indonesia Lead Analyst based in our Singapore office, about what a Prabowo presidency would look like and how the business risk landscape in Indonesia is expected to change.  

Find more of our analysis on South East Asia here.

Asia in Focus - India Elections 2024: risks and opportunities from the world's largest election

India is often regarded as sitting in a geopolitical sweet spot. The country is seen as a rising power on the global stage as well as an ally to several Western states. All eyes will be on the country in April and May 2024 as India heads to the polls in its upcoming general election, which will see 900 million people cast their votes. While no surprises are expected, the outcome will set the tone and direction for businesses operating in India for the next 5 years.

But the general election will likely not derail India’s growth agenda. India’s Vision 2047 document, expected to be formally unveiled this year, will lay out a path to elevate India’s economy from a gross domestic product of USD 3.4 trillion to USD 30 trillion by 2047. Alongside incentives to drive investment and the opportunities that come with a large, aspirational consumer market, businesses should also expect inefficiencies and obstacles to doing business; myriad climate challenges; a massive digital infrastructure vulnerable to threat actors; and all the complexity of centre / state, regional, and social challenges.

In this episode of Asia In Focus, Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Khalid Shah, Analyst, about how businesses operating in India can prepare for the future.

Visit our India Business page to find our latest analysis on India, or read our analysis on the top risks and opportunities for India in 2024.

If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.

Decrypt - Getting AI implementation right

The yearlong buzz and panic following the launch of Chat-GPT has given way to the nuts and bolts of implementation. For companies large and small, from developers to end users, the question is: what’s at stake?

Join Nicolas Reys, Steve Sacks, and Caitlin Egen, experts based in New York, DC, and London, respectively, for a conversation about the work they’re doing with clients who are weighing the risks and opportunities of implementing AI – from assessing vendors to tracking regulation.

EMEA in Focus - Key takeaways from African Mining Indaba 2024

Investing in African Mining Indaba is a staple in the mining industry’s calendar. Once again, attendees from all over the globe met to discuss and explore the latest trends and developments in Africa’s mineral industry under the theme “Embracing the power of positive disruption: A bold new future for African mining”.

Join Wayne Malgas for a conversation with Jon Greenaway and Vincent Rouget, experts in our Sydney, Johannesburg and London offices, respectively, as they discuss the main issues from this year’s Mining Indaba, which include topics around critical minerals and resource nationalism.

The Global Insight - Critical minerals, slow business: making sense of the down-cycle

Critical minerals are a hot topic right now, but most people don’t realise how truly critical they are until there is a restriction on their use. Critical minerals drive AI, the cloud, the energy transition – but they also power our phones, keep the lights on, the dishwasher running. The US defines critical minerals as those which serve an essential function in one or more energy technology, and which are at high risk of supply chain disruption. Securing access to them is existential.  

Claudine Fry, Director of Control Risks’ Global Issues team, chats with Stephen Norris, a Partner in Control Risks’ Tokyo office, to discuss the current critical minerals down-cycle, geopolitical dynamics, and how he anticipates regulation and investment in the sector will evolve.

Find out how we can support your organisation.

The Global Insight - Contested waters: geopolitics returns to the sea

Just as the shipping industry was recovering from years of pandemic disruption, its vulnerability has been laid bare yet again. This time the extra costs, delays and clogged berths are compounded by destroyers, drones and a higher-octane geopolitical tension. Growing insecurity in the Red Sea is a reminder that geopolitics underpins global trade and can threaten it as easily as it can uphold it.

Join Control Risks Partner Claudine Fry for a conversation with Control Risks' experts Cormac Mc Garry and Arran Kennedy about why businesses need to be paying attention what’s happening in the Red Sea -- and not just to the near-term risk -- and not just to the near-term risk.

 

The Global Insight - Lessons from 2023: global business goes back to school

2023 felt like an uneven, transitional year. Global inflation has fallen sharply, and supply chains have recovered without a major economic crisis. But overwhelming geopolitical volatility, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Europe and the Sahel, as well as a looming swathe of elections worldwide haunts any attempt to paint an overly rosy picture. 2023 also saw the emergence of a new multipolar world order as Middle Powers flexed their muscles and leaps in AI supercharged just about everything. Businesses must be ready to monitor and adapt.

What’s next? Join Control Risks Partner, Claudine Fry, for a conversation with Control Risks experts Jonathan Wood, a Principal in our Global Risk Analysis team based in the US, and Andrew Gilholm, a Principal in our Global Risk Analysis team based in South Korea, as they examine the key events and trends from 2023 and what these mean for the year ahead.

For more on what businesses need to watch in 2024, check out RiskMap, Control Risks’ annual forecast of business risks, compiled by Control Risks experts worldwide. With risk ratings and in-depth analysis, RiskMap is your essential guide to mitigating risk and seizing opportunity in the year ahead.  

Find out more about how we can support your business.

Dispute Diaries - Litigation Funding: Unpacking PACCAR Inc

The UK Supreme Courts’ recent decision to rule that many litigation funding arrangements are damages-based agreements and must therefore comply with relevant regulatory regimes has received a lot of attention, posing questions on what it means for the litigation funding sector.  

Join our host, Aakash Brahmachari for a discussion with Control Risks’ Partner, Ramon Ghosh, J-P Pitt, Partner at Hereford Litigation and Fraser Mitchell, Partner at Armstrong Teasdale as they unpack what the UK Supreme Court’s recent decision on funding arrangements means for the litigation funding sector, its implications on ongoing matters, and how it impacts the future of the funding sector.   

Find out more about our Litigation and Dispute services.  

Asia in Focus - Indonesia Elections 2024: A year of red herrings?

Indonesia just closed its presidential candidate registration on 25 October, 2023. After much anticipation, voters finally have confirmation that there will be 3 presidential pairings set for the Valentine’s day vote next year, which is unlikely to produce a winner with a majority of the 200 million votes up for grabs.

As current president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is unable to run for a third term, businesses and investors can expect to see policies accelerating his legacy projects from now until the inauguration of the new president in October 2024.

Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Achmad Sukarsono, Associate Director and Indonesia Lead Analyst based in our Singapore office on what businesses can expect between now and October 2024, and how they can be prepared for the new presidency.

Visit our Indonesia Elections page to find our latest analysis on the presidential race, or subscribe to our South East Asia updates to get them straight to your inbox.

If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.