In the coming weeks, global businesses will continue grappling with how the Ebola outbreak affects West Africa’s emerging markets, plummeting oil prices will bring joy to some and pain to others, and Brazilians’ choice of presidents will have major business implications.
The World Bank and IMF convene amid gloomy global economic forecasts, Vladimir Putin commemorates the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Belgrade with an eye on Europe, and Evo Morales is poised to win a third term as Bolivia’s president.
Dr. Robert Quigley of International SOS discusses how organizations should respond to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the likelihood that the disease will spread more globally and the importance of including infectious diseases in business continuity planning.
Scotland’s independence movement, once a fringe issue, poses big questions for businesses across Europe; Asia’s giants explore closer ties when Xi Jinping travels to India to visit Narendra Modi; and the UN General Assembly convenes without Vladimir Putin in attendance.
The first NATO summit since the Ukraine crisis began comes at a time when NATO nations are divided about how forcefully to resist Russian aggression. Control Risks’ Europe Analyst Cvete Koneska explains the alliance must strike a balance; assuaging the fears of its central and eastern European members without escalating tensions with Moscow.
As summer draws to a close, this special edition of the podcast looks at major events on the horizon, from the challenges of global governance on display at NATO, G-20 and United Nations summits to the strains that slowed economic growth will have on national politics in Brazil, Japan and the United States.
RiskMap Podcast: Ebola outbreak, India’s privatisation programme and the American midterm election campaign
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa, India’s nascent privatisation programme and the kickoff of the American midterm election campaign headline our survey of global risk for late August 2014 in the latest edition of RiskMap Podcast from Control Risks.
ASEAN nations meet this month amid heightened territorial tensions in what is otherwise an economic hot spot. Meanwhile, Barack Obama plays host to African leaders in Washington, and Turks head to the polls in a presidential election that could alter the structure of the government.
Nigerians go to the polls in 2015, with some predicting that the recently formed All Progressives Congress could finally provide a viable rival party to the PDP, which has swept to victory in the three elections since 1999. In the runup to those polls, Boko Haram has stepped up its campaign of violence as it seeks to put across its message. Roddy Barclay, Senior Analyst within Control Risks' Global Risks Analysis business considers the potential for Boko Haram to further ramp up their campaign into Nigeria's commercial hub, and what implications this upsurge in violence might have for the upcoming elections.
About the presenter
Roddy Barclay is a senior analyst within Control Risks’ political risk monitoring and analysis business. He is responsible for assessing political, operational and security developments in West Africa. Roddy has conducted extensive research and consulting trips across his region of expertise, helping clients to understand and manage their changing risk exposure.
Prior to joining the Africa desk three-and-a-half years ago, he worked as an Africa kidnap analyst in Control Risks’ Response department. In this role, he delivered numerous reports and briefings on the rise of militant Islamist kidnapping in the Sahel-Sahara region.
Nuclear negotiations with Iran are all but certain to miss a key deadline, yet there is still cause for optimism, according to the latest RiskMap podcast. Meanwhile, landmark reforms in Mexico begin taking shape, and tensions over Ukraine spur speculation about the trajectory of global power politics.
The prospects of an Argentinian debt default is the lead issue up for discussion in the latest instalment of the fortnightly podcast from Control Risks. Also joining Michael and Charles is Geoffrey Howard who having recently returned from a visit to Tripoli, considers the outlook for Libya following the low turnout at recent elections.
About the presenters
Charles Hecker, Global Research Director
As Global Research Director, Charles Hecker is responsible for shaping Control Risks’ thought leadership on geopolitics, global security, macroeconomics and political risk methodology issues, and their impact on international business. Charles speaks at industry, policy and academic conferences and represents the company’s work to the international media. Charles also contributes to the content and production of Control Risks’ research services and designs and delivers complex, multi-jurisdiction political and security risk consultancy.
Read the rest of this entry »
The European Commission earlier this week approved 1.7 billion euros in credit from Bulgaria’s central bank to boost the liquidity of the country’s banks, after savers in one of the four largest commercial banks, First Investment Bank, rushed to withdraw their deposits following rumours about the bank’s insolvency. This was the second bank run in two weeks, after Corporate Commercial Bank experienced similar problems. Control Risks' eastern Europe analyst, Cvete Koneska, discusses the outlook for Bulgaria and its banking sector.
About the presenter
Cvete Koneska is Control Risks’ lead analyst for Southeast Europe. She is responsible for providing security, political and operational risk analysis on countries in the region, providing regular contributions to Control Risks' subscription publications and advising clients on political and security risk factors impacting their investments.
Prior to joining Control Risks, Cvete completed a DPhil degree in politics at St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, where she researched factors driving success in post-conflict policy-making in the Balkans. Her book After Ethnic Conflict is due to be published in November 2014.