Violence and voting - Nigeria 2015 outlook

July 18, 2014

Nigerians go to the polls in 2015, with some predicting that the recently formed All Progressives Congress could finally provide a viable rival party to the PDP, which has swept to victory in the three elections since 1999. In the runup to those polls, Boko Haram has stepped up its campaign of violence as it seeks to put across its message. Roddy Barclay, Senior Analyst within Control Risks' Global Risks Analysis business considers the potential for Boko Haram to further ramp up their campaign into Nigeria's commercial hub, and what implications this upsurge in violence might have for the upcoming elections.

About the presenter

roddy-barclay.jpgRoddy Barclay is a senior analyst within Control Risks’ political risk monitoring and analysis business. He is responsible for assessing political, operational and security developments in West Africa. Roddy has conducted extensive research and consulting trips across his region of expertise, helping clients to understand and manage their changing risk exposure.

Prior to joining the Africa desk three-and-a-half years ago, he worked as an Africa kidnap analyst in Control Risks’ Response department. In this role, he delivered numerous reports and briefings on the rise of militant Islamist kidnapping in the Sahel-Sahara region.

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RiskMap Podcast: Iran’s Nuclear Negotiations, Mexico’s Reforms, And The ‘Post-Crimea’ Era

July 18, 2014

Nuclear negotiations with Iran are all but certain to miss a key deadline, yet there is still cause for optimism, according to the latest RiskMap podcast. Meanwhile, landmark reforms in Mexico begin taking shape, and tensions over Ukraine spur speculation about the trajectory of global power politics.

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RiskMap Podcast: Argentina’s debt, Libya post election and the upcoming BRICS summit

July 4, 2014

The prospects of an Argentinian debt default is the lead issue up for discussion in the latest instalment of the fortnightly podcast from Control Risks. Also joining Michael and Charles is Geoffrey Howard who having recently returned from a visit to Tripoli, considers the outlook for Libya following the low turnout at recent elections.

About the presenters

Charles Hecker, Global Research Director

CharlesHecker6.jpgAs Global Research Director, Charles Hecker is responsible for shaping Control Risks’ thought leadership on geopolitics, global security, macroeconomics and political risk methodology issues, and their impact on international business. Charles speaks at industry, policy and academic conferences and represents the company’s work to the international media. Charles also contributes to the content and production of Control Risks’ research services and designs and delivers complex, multi-jurisdiction political and security risk consultancy.
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Bulgarian banks - on the brink?

July 2, 2014

The European Commission earlier this week approved 1.7 billion euros in credit from Bulgaria’s central bank to boost the liquidity of the country’s banks, after savers in one of the four largest commercial banks, First Investment Bank, rushed to withdraw their deposits following rumours about the bank’s insolvency. This was the second bank run in two weeks, after Corporate Commercial Bank experienced similar problems. Control Risks' eastern Europe analyst, Cvete Koneska, discusses the outlook for Bulgaria and its banking sector.

About the presenter

cvete.jpgCvete Koneska is Control Risks’ lead analyst for Southeast Europe. She is responsible for providing security, political and operational risk analysis on countries in the region, providing regular contributions to Control Risks' subscription publications and advising clients on political and security risk factors impacting their investments.

Prior to joining Control Risks, Cvete completed a DPhil degree in politics at St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, where she researched factors driving success in post-conflict policy-making in the Balkans. Her book After Ethnic Conflict is due to be published in November 2014.

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Will Colombia’s star continue to shine brightly?

June 27, 2014

In recent years, Colombia has been a bright spot amongst emerging markets with a stable government enabling progressive reform, and steady progress on peace talks with the FARC guerrilla movement painting a very different picture from the country’s historic reputation as a haven for drug cartels. In this podcast, Control Risks lead analyst in Bogotá, Oliver Wack, considers the prospects, opportunities and threats to the country’s future investment ambitions.

About the presenter

o-wack.jpgOliver Wack is the Colombia Analyst for Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks’ market-leading political, operational and security risk analysis and forecasting team. In this capacity, Oliver provides daily updates for Control Risks’ subscription services (CRF and PRIME), as well as writing detailed reports and consulting clients on the political, operational and security risks to operations in the region.
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ISIS offensive: the terror threat to the West, oil prices and relations with Iran

June 20, 2014
As ISIS militants continue their push for territory in Iraq, Jonathan Wood, Associate Director in Control Risks' Global issues analysis team discusses some of the broader themes evolving from the turmoil; whether the ISIS offensive increases the terrorist threat to the West, the potential implications for the price of oil and what might be the longer term fallout in relation to Iran's relations with the West.

About the presenter
JW_02_LR.jpg
Jonathan Wood leads Control Risks’ strategic analysis practice, which provides analysis and consultancy on global business risks. Jonathan’s substantive portfolio encompasses geopolitical risk, energy security, climate change, business integrity issues, and security, social and reputational risks.
Prior to joining Control Risks, Jonathan evaluated multilateral development bank procurement policies for consultancy Development Finance International, based outside of Washington, DC, and worked on defence sector integrity issues at anti-corruption organisation Transparency International UK in London. Jonathan also previously worked as a domestic policy analyst for leading US food security organisations based in Washington, DC, and Boston.
Jonathan graduated magna cum laude with a BA in History and Literature from Harvard University and completed an MSc with distinction in Global Politics from the London School of Economics (LSE), focusing on transnational energy security, resource economics and globalisation. He received a distinction for his dissertation on the political economy of the UAE.
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RiskMap Podcast: Energy Dispute in Ukraine, US Politics, and Indonesia’s Election

June 20, 2014

In the next fortnight, Ukraine's gas supply becomes the latest front in its conflict with Russia, the US political landscape shifts following the ouster of a prominent congressional leader, and in Indonesia, presidential elections bring hope of reforms. These are the topics up for discussion with Michael Moran and Charles Hecker in the latest bi-weekly podcast from Control Risks. 

About the presenters

Michael Moran, Managing Director, Global Risk Analysis

mmoran-54.jpgMichael Moran is Managing Director, Global Risk Analysis at Control Risks. A foreign policy journalist, writer and geo-strategist for investment banks and other institutions, he is author of The Reckoning: Debt, Democracy and the Future of American Power and co-author of the 2012 book The Fastest Billion: The Story Behind Africa's Economic Revolution.

 

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Iraq Update - ISIS continue to take ground in strategic areas

June 11, 2014

Andreas Carleton-Smith, regional director for the Middle East and Gala Riani, Head of Analysis for Middle East and North Africa discuss the current situation in Iraq.

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RiskMap Podcast: Tension in the South China Sea, Unity in Palestine, and the World Cup Kicks Off

June 6, 2014

Over the coming fortnight, tensions between China and Vietnam over disputed waters in the South China Sea will keep the region on edge; a new Palestinian unity government makes waves in the Middle East; and all eyes turn to Brazil, where the stage could be set for more than just football.

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Conflict minerals: Implications of Section 1502

June 4, 2014

Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act came into effect on June 2. Under this legislation, US-listed companies will need to submit “conflict mineral reports” to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which assess whether the sourcing of the tin, tantalum, tungsten or gold used in their products may have helped fund Congolese fighting groups. In this podcast, Christoph Wille, Control Risks' political and security risk analyst for Congo (DRC) considers the potential implications of the new legislation.
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RiskMap Podcast: Colombia’s Election, Angola’s Oil Fields and D-Day’s Subtext

May 23, 2014

In the coming weeks: Colombia holds a presidential election, which Oliver Wack says could help bring an end to that country’s decades-old insurgency; Angola begins bidding for onshore oil blocks, opening a new chapter in the country’s energy industry ; and the 70th anniversary of D-Day will bring Western leaders face-to-face with Vladimir Putin, providing a rich geopolitical subplot.

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Elections Update: Greece and Belgium

May 22, 2014

While most attention is being drawn on the European elections, Charles Hecker, Global Research Director,  and David Lea, Senior Analyst for Western Europe look at two other countries which are voting both in those elections and also domestically this week. Greece and Belgium.

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Iran - the view from Tehran

May 12, 2014

The more conciliatory tone adopted by Iranian President Hassan Rowhani and progress on the P5+1 talks in Geneva has raised the prospects of a lifting of the punitive sanctions which have been imposed on Iran since 2006. While those negotiations remain at an early stage, there is growing interest amongst multinational organisations about the opportunities that might arise should Iran return to the international fold.

Andreas Carleton-Smith, regional director for the Middle East and North Africa and Henry Smith, senior consultant in the Global Risk Analysis business have made a recent research trip to Iran to assess the prospects for progress. They discuss the mood on the ground and outline the key opportunities and risks should the sanctions be removed.
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RiskMap: Nigeria’s Counterinsurgency

May 9, 2014

Headlines in the coming weeks will highlight the challenges of quelling violence in northeast Nigeria. Elsewhere, India begins to form a government after its marathon election and the global anti-corruption movement gives power to the people.

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South African elections - outlook and implications

April 30, 2014

In the latest podcast from Control Risks, South Africa analyst, Paul Gabriel, discusses the potential outcomes of the upcoming General Election in South Africa at which voters will elect a new National Assembly and new provincial legislatures. The ANC and its tripartite partners aren't expected to lose much ground on the 65% of the vote they secured in 2009, but could these elections have greater significance?

About the Presenter

Paul Gabriel provides political, operational and security risk analysis on South Africa and the East Africa region to a broad range of clients through tailored reports and Control Risks’ subscription services, Country Risk Forecast and PRIME. Paul frequently travels to the region for client and research purposes.

Prior to joining Control Risks, Paul was an analyst with risk consultancy Maplecroft. He worked on political and security risks in sub-Saharan Africa for a number of global corporations, international organisations and government departments. Paul also held a position with the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre monitoring the compliance of countries in sub-Saharan Africa with the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme.

Paul gained an MA in International Conflict Studies from King’s College London, where his work focused on the possibilities of using open source intelligence in the context of conflict early warning and response in sub-Saharan Africa. He holds a first-class Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg.

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