Control Risks

With no successful terrorist attack in Nairobi and Mombasa since May 2014 and al-Shabab being on the back foot in Somalia, it is understandable that some have been quick to dismiss the group. However, measuring the state of al-Shabab by the size of territory under its control or the number of foreign militants is misleading. Rather than signs of terminal decline, changes in al-Shabab’s operating pattern are a potential source of future strength.

Paul Gabriel, East Africa Analyst

China has played a major role in Africa’s growth story over the past decade. Now that the Chinese economy is rebalancing and GDP growth is slowing, how will that affect Africa’s prospects?

The final two weeks of Nigeria’s election bring considerable uncertainty to Africa’s largest economy. Meanwhile, Asian investors look abroad for opportunities, focusing on Africa, the Middle East and Indonesia. Hosted by Michael Moran and Charles Hecker.

In the coming weeks, global businesses will continue grappling with how the Ebola outbreak affects West Africa’s emerging markets, plummeting oil prices will bring joy to some and pain to others, and Brazilians’ choice of presidents will have major business implications.

The death of Nelson Mandela has ushered in a period of mourning and reflection in South Africa. In this podcast Simiso Velempini assesses what will be the implications of his death and takes stock of the business environment in South Africa ahead of next year’s elections.

In the latest podcast from Control Risks, Paul Gabriel, our analyst for Somalia and Kenya assesses the fallout from the Westgate attack, looking at the threat al-Shabab poses across East Africa.

After three years as President of Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan is now facing perhaps the biggest challenge to his leadership with a number of prominent politicians earlier this month quitting the PDP to form a new breakaway party. In this podcast, Roddy Barclay and Thomas Hansen, political and security risk analysts for Nigeria discuss the short and medium term implications for stability in Nigeria.

In this podcast, Simiso Velempini Control Risks’ political and security risk analyst for Zimbabwe assesses the immediate and longer term implications of Robert Mugabe’s contentious, but convincing victory in the country’s recent elections.

Following the recent troubles in Egypt and the prospect of further unrest in Tunisia, in this podcast, Control Risks analysts discuss the outlook for North Africa and in particular, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia.

Following the first round of the referendum in Egypt, Henry Smith, North Africa Analyst at Control Risks discusses what we've learnt so far.

Gala Riani, head of Control Risks' team of Middle East analysts gives a forecast of key developments in the region over the next year.